Hurricane Milton to bring dangerous storm surge to Florida coasts (2025)

Tony Mainolfi

Chief Meteorologist

Hurricane Milton to bring dangerous storm surge to Florida coasts

GOT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. LET’S GET TO IT. IF WE CAN. ONE 55MPH. SO NOW IT IS DOWN TO A CAT FOUR FROM A CAT FIVE, AND THE PRESSURE IS GOING UP, WHICH IS GREAT NEWS, BUT IT IS PICKING UP. IT’S NOW MOVING AT 16MPH. SO IT IS WEAKENING. IT’S NOT GOING TO WEAKEN THOUGH BY MUCH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL, BECAUSE IT IS MOVING SO QUICKLY. SO RIGHT NOW WHEN WE LOOK AT THE ENHANCED SATELLITE PHOTO, YOU CAN SEE IT SLOWLY. THE PURPLE PART SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD OUT. THAT’S THE WIND FIELD SPREADING OUT. AND THE EYE IS COLLAPSING. SO IT IS WEAKENING. WE JUST GOT CONFIRMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FROM THAT 8:00 ADVISORY. AGAIN, IT WENT FROM A CAT FIVE NOW TO A CAT FOUR, BUT IT’S STILL GOING TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS ABOUT 200 MILES OUT FROM THE POINT OF LANDFALL AROUND THE SARASOTA AREA. AT LEAST THAT CENTER OF LANDFALL. AND OF COURSE, WE STILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE TRACK, WHICH IS ABOUT 40 MILES OR SO NORTH. AND SOUTH OF LANDFALL, WHERE THAT CENTER OF THE TRACK IS. AS WE TAKE YOU THROUGH FUTURECAST, I WANT TO SHOW YOU THIS SPECIFICALLY, THIS IS OUR IN-HOUSE MODEL BECAUSE IT IS PICKING UP THINGS A BIT, NOT NECESSARILY SAYING THAT THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN, BUT DO KNOW THAT AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, OUR RAINS BEGIN TO PICK UP 6:00. TONIGHT WE REALLY START TO BRING IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, AND THEN BLINDING TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE TRACK AS WE GO TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATE TONIGHT, EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AS MILTON CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, WE’LL SLOWLY START TO SEE THINGS WEAKEN AND IMPROVE BY TOMORROW MORNING, 730 8:00 THROUGH ABOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT THEN WITH THAT COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, WE WILL HAVE TO STILL WATCH OUR COASTLINE BECAUSE IT’S VERY VULNERABLE, ESPECIALLY OUT IN FLAGLER AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM HURRICANE IAN AND NICOLE, TWO YEARS AGO. SO WHEN WE HAVE THIS STORM SURGE, WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION AS WELL. SO THIS MORNING, WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW THERE ARE SHOWERS AROUND AND WE’LL CONTINUE TO WATCH MILTON. BUT THEN OUR RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AND THEN SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL TRACK THOSE AS IT WORKS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RIGHT NOW. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF TORNADO WARNINGS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT RIGHT NOW WE’RE JUST REALLY DEALING WITH SOME RAINFALL. ERIC RIGHT. THAT’S THE GOOD NEWS. BUT IT IS IT IS STILL CRUMMY OUTSIDE. I MEAN, LOOK AT OUR LIVE FIRST WARNING DOPPLER RADAR. FIRST OFF, THE GREENS ARE STEADY RAINS. BUT YOU START TO PICK UP INTO SOME OF THOSE DARKER GREENS. THOSE ARE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. AND I WOULD ALSO ADD THAT RAINS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST OUTPERFORM. SO DON’T TAKE THIS RADAR IMAGE LIKE YOU WOULD IN A SUMMER’S DAY, BECAUSE IT’S GOING TO BE A MUCH HEAVIER RAIN THAN THAT. ALL RIGHT. LET’S TAKE YOU AROUND ON OUR FIRST WARNING DOPPLER RADAR. KIND OF GET AN IDEA OF WHAT WE’RE TRACKING. FIRST OFF, HEAVY WAVE OF RAIN COMING IN HERE RIGHT OVER I-4 IN VOLUSIA. IT’S A GOOD, STEADY RAIN IN ORLANDO, BUT SOME HEAVIER STUFF IS LIFTING UP FROM ABOUT THE TAFT AREA. CONWAY AREA, DELTONA, OUT NEAR LAKE ASHBY, 415. IT IS POURING AND THERE’S MORE RAIN WORKING RIGHT UP I-4 HERE. ORANGE CAMP ROAD BACK OVER TOWARD, SAY, I-95. BUT NOTICE THE TRENDS HERE AROUND POINCIANA DOWN TO KEENAN’S VILLE. THESE ARE STARTING TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY, SO KISSIMMEE GET READY. YOU’RE ABOUT TO GET A REAL TROPICAL DOWNPOUR. FUTURECAST SHOWING THESE WAVES OF ENERGY COMING IN AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 4 P.M. THE WINDS WILL START GUSTING 30 40MPH. AND THEN RAMP UP FROM THERE. AND RAMP UP AND RAMP UP UNTIL WE GET TO ABOUT NINE 10:00, WHEN WE’RE REALLY WATCHING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. I WOULD ALSO ADD OUR FUTURECAST MODEL IS QUICKER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN TERMS OF LANDFALL. SO UNDERSTAND THESE TIMES MAY BE SHIFTING JUST A LITTLE BIT, BUT MIDNIGHT FUTURECAST SAYS THE HURRICANE WILL BE AROUND I-4 IN POLK COUNTY, AROUND 60 70 MILE PER HOUR WINDS. BUT THAT WIND FIELD EXTENDS OVER TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY. ALSO, BY ABOUT 2 A.M., HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEN BY THREE, 4:00, THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD START TO MOVE AWAY FROM US. AND THEN LITTLE BY LITTLE, LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WE GET BETTER AND BETTER. SO FOR MARION, SUMTER, LAKE COUNTIES, HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 8595 MILES AN HOUR. BUT THERE IS A BIG WORRY ABOUT FLOODING RAINS 6 TO 12IN OF RAIN, ISOLATED. EVEN MORE THAN THAT, I THINK THE BIGGEST WIND CORE COMES THROUGH POLK, OSCEOLA, ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES, GUSTING 8090 MILES AN HOUR. AND ALONG THE SHORELINE. IN ADDITION TO THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS RUNNING 75 TO 80. YOU’RE UNDER STORM SURGE WARNINGS, AND WE’RE TALKING ABOUT A 3 TO 5 FOOT RISE IN OCEAN CONDITIONS. YEAH, THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A CONCERN FOR US. BEACH EROSION, COASTAL FLOODING, THE WHOLE NINE YARDS. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, YES, WE ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE A HURRICANE. WE’LL DO IT TOGETHER. WILL BE ALL RIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT. AND LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND FOR CLEANUP EFFORTS AND TRYING TO GET BACK TO NORMA

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Hurricane Milton to bring dangerous storm surge to Florida coasts

Tony Mainolfi

Chief Meteorologist

As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida as a dangerous major storm, models are showing the risk of storm surge on the coasts. "If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation and you should evacuate if ordered to do so by local officials," the National Hurricane Center posted. Florida's west coast is expected to see the worst of the storm surge, with 10-15 feet of surge possible for the Tampa area, and up to 12 feet possible for the Fort Myers area. However, portions of the east coast may see 3-5 feet of surge.The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tideEgmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ftMilton will also bring rough surf this week, likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.> Get live updates as Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida>> Track Hurricane Milton: Latest cone, spaghetti models, projected path

ORLANDO, Fla. —

As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida as a dangerous major storm, models are showing the risk of storm surge on the coasts.

"If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation and you should evacuate if ordered to do so by local officials," the National Hurricane Center posted.

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This content is imported from Twitter.You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.

Storm surge is a concern on BOTH sides of the Florida Peninsula with #Milton. Here's the latest thinking. Stay with #weshwx pic.twitter.com/WPQSQTrjY7

— Tony Mainolfi (@TMainolfiWESH) October 9, 2024

Florida's west coast is expected to see the worst of the storm surge, with 10-15 feet of surge possible for the Tampa area, and up to 12 feet possible for the Fort Myers area. However, portions of the east coast may see 3-5 feet of surge.

The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide

  • Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
  • Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
  • Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
  • Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
  • Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
  • Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
  • Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
  • Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
  • Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
  • Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
  • Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
  • Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft

This content is imported from Twitter.You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.

10/8 10pm CDT: A large area of destructive storm surge from #Milton is expected along portions of the west coast of Florida.

If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation & you should evacuate if ordered to do so by local officials. pic.twitter.com/iWjoDVVWpK

— NHC Storm Surge (@NHC_Surge) October 9, 2024

Milton will also bring rough surf this week, likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

> Get live updates as Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida

>> Track Hurricane Milton: Latest cone, spaghetti models, projected path

Hurricane Milton to bring dangerous storm surge to Florida coasts (2025)
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